Kenya: Worrying Scenario As Bigger National Food Crunch Looms

armyworm

There is a bigger national food crunch than was projected or anticipated due to drought and the armyworm invasion.This is already being reflected in the upward surge of prices of many basic foods.

In turn it is going to force us to take a longer and harder look at our overall food sufficiency situation and how potentially vulnerable we are. It is important to emphasize the holistic nature of the food crunch.

The country's food needs are the total of the food humans consume and what is fed to animals, which are, in turn, slaughtered for our meat requirements.

FOOD CHAIN

So when we talk about consumption we must include all the food required for this whole food chain. On average, around 4 million metric tons (mm mts) of maize is needed in a year of which around one quarter is imported. Out of that 3.5 mm mts is for human consumption and the balance for animal feed.

In a good year much of that maize shortfall comes from formal and informal imports from Uganda and Tanzania.

Unfortunately, this time round the region has suffered from drought and so there has been little or no surplus flowing in.

Their crops could be further decimated by the Fall armyworm (FAW). Hence, Kenya needs to import from wherever there is a surplus in the world.

It is worth mentioning that the majority of maize produced in the world is yellow and so obtaining white maize in a "thin" market is often more demanding and expensive.

WHEAT DEMAND

The wheat demand is 1.7 mm mts but only around one sixth of that is produced locally. Kenya is highly dependent on wheat imports from a variety of countries such as Russia, Ukraine, South America, Australia and Canada.

It is important to put into the equation the factor that much of Kenya is arid, semi-arid or desert and conversely only a modest percentage of it is suitable for crops such as maize and wheat.

There are plans for mega irrigation schemes such as the one being constructed in Galana, but bringing them on stream is a lengthy and expensive undertaking.

So the backdrop this time is double-pronged. The first is the shortfall or deficient rains over an extended period.

This looked set to harden our food deficit status, especially as the long rains are late and may be deficient in some areas.

ARMYWORM INVASION

On top of this now is the Fall armyworm invasion. The march of this type of armyworm through many of the southern African crops has caused havoc and massive harvest losses.

It is too early to ascertain the full impact of an armyworm invasion on Kenyan crops as it is in its early stages.

A worst case scenario would be that it could make the 2017/2018 maize crop a dismal one, resulting in imports for at least the next year and longer.

The drought and armyworm invasion in our two neighbours will negatively impact on our traditional maize imports from them.

This means we are in the world market for significant maize imports for the foreseeable future as well as for wheat.

MANY SURPLUSES

One issue that has come into the fore of the food debate is the GMO factor, with some in government taking a hard line stance against it.

Kenya can source some non-GMO white maize from the Comesa countries but there are not many surpluses around at the moment. Indeed, several need to import substantial amounts of food.

One can argue that to manage the sort of demands and challenges we are facing in the foreseeable future Kenya needs to consider the option of broadening its tolerance on specifications, GMO included, and the temporary suspension of the 50 per cent duty on maize coming from outside Comesa.

The other factor in the debate is whether some GMO strains, especially drought and disease-resistant types, should be allowed to be planted in Kenya.

Again, this is causing some heated debate. Overall, what comes out clearly is Kenya needs a much more proactive, and less reactive, approach to its whole food equation issue if it is to ensure greater food security in future. The release of some of the strategic reserve is a welcome short-term alleviation measure, but no more.