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| armyworm |
There is a bigger national food crunch than was projected or anticipated due to drought and the armyworm invasion.This is already being reflected in the upward surge of prices of many basic foods.
In turn it is going
to force us to take a longer and harder look at our overall food
sufficiency situation and how potentially vulnerable we are. It is important to emphasize the holistic nature of the food crunch.
The country's food
needs are the total of the food humans consume and what is fed to
animals, which are, in turn, slaughtered for our meat requirements.
FOOD CHAIN
So when we talk
about consumption we must include all the food required for this whole
food chain. On average, around 4 million metric tons (mm mts) of maize
is needed in a year of which around one quarter is imported. Out of that
3.5 mm mts is for human consumption and the balance for animal feed.
In a good year much of that maize shortfall comes from formal and informal imports from Uganda and Tanzania.
Unfortunately, this time round the region has suffered from drought and so there has been little or no surplus flowing in.
Their crops could
be further decimated by the Fall armyworm (FAW). Hence, Kenya needs to
import from wherever there is a surplus in the world.
It is worth
mentioning that the majority of maize produced in the world is yellow
and so obtaining white maize in a "thin" market is often more demanding
and expensive.
WHEAT DEMAND
The wheat demand is
1.7 mm mts but only around one sixth of that is produced locally. Kenya
is highly dependent on wheat imports from a variety of countries such
as Russia, Ukraine, South America, Australia and Canada.
It is important to
put into the equation the factor that much of Kenya is arid, semi-arid
or desert and conversely only a modest percentage of it is suitable for
crops such as maize and wheat.
There are plans for
mega irrigation schemes such as the one being constructed in Galana,
but bringing them on stream is a lengthy and expensive undertaking.
So the backdrop this time is double-pronged. The first is the shortfall or deficient rains over an extended period.
This looked set to harden our food deficit status, especially as the long rains are late and may be deficient in some areas.
ARMYWORM INVASION
On top of this now
is the Fall armyworm invasion. The march of this type of armyworm
through many of the southern African crops has caused havoc and massive
harvest losses.
It is too early to ascertain the full impact of an armyworm invasion on Kenyan crops as it is in its early stages.
A worst case
scenario would be that it could make the 2017/2018 maize crop a dismal
one, resulting in imports for at least the next year and longer.
The drought and armyworm invasion in our two neighbours will negatively impact on our traditional maize imports from them.
This means we are in the world market for significant maize imports for the foreseeable future as well as for wheat.
MANY SURPLUSES
One issue that has
come into the fore of the food debate is the GMO factor, with some in
government taking a hard line stance against it.
Kenya can source
some non-GMO white maize from the Comesa countries but there are not
many surpluses around at the moment. Indeed, several need to import
substantial amounts of food.
One can argue that
to manage the sort of demands and challenges we are facing in the
foreseeable future Kenya needs to consider the option of broadening its
tolerance on specifications, GMO included, and the temporary suspension
of the 50 per cent duty on maize coming from outside Comesa.
The other factor in
the debate is whether some GMO strains, especially drought and
disease-resistant types, should be allowed to be planted in Kenya.
Again, this is
causing some heated debate. Overall, what comes out clearly is Kenya
needs a much more proactive, and less reactive, approach to its whole
food equation issue if it is to ensure greater food security in future.
The release of some of the strategic reserve is a welcome short-term
alleviation measure, but no more.
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