USDA Reports Summary USDA Lowers Old-Crop Corn, Soybean Stocks

USDA will release its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports at 11 a.m. CDT Friday. (Logo courtesy of USDA)

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA lowered old-crop corn stocks by 97 million bushels to 1.78 billion bushels and soybean stocks by 172 mb to 255 mb.On new-crop, USDA's production estimates reflected last month's Acreage report (a decrease in corn and an increase in soybeans), but USDA left yields unchanged at 166.8 bushels per acre on corn and 46 bpa on soybeans. 

USDA sees new-crop corn production at 13.53 bb, slightly higher than the average pre-report estimate. The ending stocks estimate came in at 1.6 bb, within the range of pre-report estimates. 

On soybeans, USDA estimated new-crop production at 3.89 bb, up from 3.85 bb last month and equal to the highest pre-report estimate. That puts the new-crop ending stocks estimate at 425 mb, down only 50 mb from June's estimate. 

Globally, USDA made large changes to 2014-15 and 2015-16 ending stocks for wheat to reflect a sharp decline in wheat feeding in China that started in 2013-14. Global wheat supplies for 2015-16 increased by 12.1 million metric tons and use fell 5.4 mmt, resulting in a 17.4 mmt increase in ending stocks to 219.8 mmt.

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Crop Production: http://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

 

CORN

USDA lowered old-crop corn ending stocks to 1.779 bb to reflect a lower June 1 stocks figure. USDA increased feed use by 50 mb, ethanol use by 25 mb and exports by 25 mb. 

On new crop, USDA slightly lowered production by 100 mb to 13.53 bb due to lower planted acreage. USDA cut feed use by 25 mb, increased ethanol use by 25 mb and cut exports by 25 mb, resulting in a net decline in use of 25 mb. Ending stocks fell to 1.599 billion bushels. 

Endings stock-to-use for 2014-15 came in at 13% while 2015-16 were pegged at 11.6%. The new-crop national average price increased 25 cents from last month to $3.75.

Globally, USDA trimmed corn stocks for both 2014-15 and 2015-16 to 193.95 mmt (197.01 mmt last month) and 189.95 mmt (195.19 mmt last month) respectively.

Brazilian corn production for 2015-16 increased 2 mmt to 77 mmt while Argentina's production was left unchanged at 25 mmt.

The stocks-to-use ratios are 19.7% for 2014-15 and 19.2% for 2015-16.

SOYBEANS

Old-crop soybean ending stocks declined to 255 mb. USDA increased crush use by 15 mb, exports by 15 mb and residual use by 44 mb. 

USDA's production estimates and ending stocks for 2015-16 came in toward the high end of pre-report estimates. New-crop soybean ending stocks came in at 425 mb. USDA increased its crush estimate by 10 mb. 

The ending stocks-to-use for 2014-15 came in at 6.6% while 2015-16 came in at 11.4%. The new-crop national average farm gate price also increased a quarter to $9.25.

Globally, soybean ending stocks for 2014-15 came in at 81.68 mmt, down from 83.7 mmt last month. Ending stocks for 2015-16 also declined to 91.8 mmt from 93.2 mmt in June. Argentina and Brazil production were left unchanged at 57 mmt and 97 mmt respectively.

Global ending stocks-to-use ratios came in at 27.6% for 2014-15 and 30.5% for 2015-16. 

WHEAT

USDA lowered its all winter wheat production estimate 3% from its June 1 forecast to 1.46 billion bushels. Hard red winter wheat production, at 866 mb, is down 2% from last month. Soft red winter wheat production is down 5% at 393 mb. White winter wheat production came in at 196 mb, down 4% from last month, with 12.7 mb of hard white winter production and 183 mb of soft white winter production.